Time and Chance

Posted on April 22, 2008
Filed Under Free Will, Philosophy | 3 Comments

Slot MachineIs there a difference between something being random at time T such that E is a random event at T and the case where there is a randomness determining E at T such that E is random but not generated at time T?

Consider for instance Las Vegas. Slot machines and presumably many other games of chance are actually pre-calculated with the results stored in a secure location. This is to ensure that cheaters can’t fake the system. One need only for large payoffs compare the result with the slot machine to the precalculated random numbers stored off site.

Now we don’t want to say that the slot machines aren’t random. They are. One could well say linguistically that the event caused by my pulling of the slot machine arm is a random event. But clearly the randomness needn’t have been created at the time I pull the arm.

Let’s now apply this intuition to metaphysics.

Consider some quantum event E at time T. In an ontological view of randomness one might say that ontologically the event E is random. But let’s say one accepts a block universe such that the entire universe (and all quantum effects) are determined simultaneously at its creation. Wouldn’t it still be the case that E at T is random? (Say the position of an electron going through a double slit experiment)

Is there any difference between randomness at T and randomness for a block universe at time 0?

I’d here apply Peirce’s maxim that for a difference to be a real difference it must make a difference. I can’t see how having ontological randomness at a time versus as an entirety makes an difference. The events are still random.

This will become significant in other contexts.

Note I obviously recognize the dissimilarity between a random block universe and the Vegas slot machine. The result of the slot machine is an event E determined at t1 but occurring at t2. The block universe model has the random event not occurring at any time since it is more primordial than time – and then arguably not an event at all. The Vegas analogy is just there to try and make clear this position. Don’t push it too far.

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Comments

3 Responses to “Time and Chance”

Just to add. I think the simple point I’m making is that randomness is a particular property relating two Events such that there isn’t causal determinism between the two. My point ends up being that one can have determinism of a sort without having causal determinism. I think these two senses end up being conflated though.

It may well be that the whole universe is a kind of wave function which collapses as a whole.

2 Michael Dorfman on April 23rd, 2008 3:01 am

Great metaphor, Clark. I believe it points to the question I’ve raised before: does “free will” really matter? As far as I can tell, there’s no way we can rigorously exclude the possibility that all of the seemingly “free” events that have occurred since time 0 (and will continue to occur into the future) have been “pre-calculated”.

I’ve thought about it more and I think the two positions end up being Presentism and Four-Demensionalism. Randomness is still randomness but it takes a different form depending upon your metaphysical position relative to that debate.

The key question then becomes whether this affects “could have done otherwise” since Libertarian Free Will proponents usually argue for a form of presentism as requiring this. I’m not sure that’s a correct assertion.

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