LDS Growth Rates

Posted on February 9, 2009
Filed Under Religion | 10 Comments

Over at T&S there was a discussion on growth of the Church. As many know the survey of religious self-identification tends to see relatively flat growth in the US. But part of that is related to big growth in the 80′s and early 90′s and then flat growth since. The reasons for that are complex. There’s actually a whole blog, LDS Church Growth, just focused on various issues related to these statistics.

Anyway the self-identification surveys appear to me to suggest our growth roughly matches birth rate increases. (We gain a few long term converts but lose a few birth members) We baptize a lot but many don’t stay active. However one better way to judge effective growth is to look at the number of congregations. While not perfect (active members in wards and stakes varies) they give a suggestion as to growth rates. The following are those statistics. (From this comment at T&S)

Year Stakes #chg %chg
1973 630 n/a n/a
1974 675 45 7.14
1975 737 62 9.19
1976 798 61 8.28
1977 885 87 10.90
1978 990 105 11.86
1979 1,092 102 10.30
1980 1,218 126 11.54
1981 1,321 103 8.46
1982 1,392 71 5.37
1983 1,458 66 4.74
1984 1,507 49 3.36
1985 1,582 75 4.98
1986 1,622 40 2.53
1987 1,666 44 2.71
1988 1,707 41 2.46
1989 1,739 32 1.87
1990 1,784 45 2.59
1991 1,837 53 2.97
1992 1,919 82 4.46
1993 1,968 49 2.55
1994 2,008 40 2.03
1995 2,150 142 7.07
1996 2,296 146 6.79
1997 2,424 128 5.57
1998 2,505 81 3.34
1999 2,542 37 1.48
2000 2,581 39 1.53
2001 2,607 26 1.01
2002 2,602 -5 -0.19
2003 2,624 22 0.85
2004 2,665 41 1.56
2005 2,701 36 1.35
2006 2,745 44 1.63
2007 2,790 45 1.64

The reason for the drop around the mid-90′s was, I suspect, a slight change in how congregations and stakes were organized along with a change in how missionary work was done. Around that time Missionaries started doing more charity work, thereby decreasing the amount of time spent proselytizing. There also was a change in how missionary work was done with less emphasis on immediate conversions. Plus I suspect a lot of the people who were likely to be converted by the methods of the 80′s had already been converted.

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Comments

10 Responses to “LDS Growth Rates”

Interesting. Our stake president announced in Ward Conference 2 weeks ago that our stake had ~4400 members, of which ~1800 were active (41% activity, fro those who care). The Church is asking each presidency in our stake to pick 5 people to work with to either bring back, hang on to, or bring in. It is purportedly a new church wide program under the Direction of Elder Lee. It would be interesting if we could map programs like this to the stats above. Did switching from the discussions to the lessons move the needle at all? (It seems to have, as that was the end of 2002/beginning of 2003 when it came out) Did switching from the “rainbow discussions” to the six discussion have an impact? (no idea when that was)

I personally think,looking at my own ward roster when I was a clerk, the Church needs to do more to reach single people and make them feel vital and connected at church.

I’ve been following this discussion on T&S as well. I think that the thing we have to remember, and I think that it is why the church has implimented the Preach My Gospel program, is that Church membership and Church activity is based on Conversion – as in true Spiritual conversion.

The church is more than a social function. Sometimes we forget this, and it is probably why singles have a tough time in church. The Church is about creating an environment where people with different backgrounds can come together and worship.

This inspires me to make my VT appointments right now! Those of us who are truly converted and committed to Christ need to remember to be good stewards to others who have not yet had the experiences that would lead them to such committment.

Catania, I know lots of people who are through and through converted to the Gospel of Jesus Christ, but have a hard time with the social aspects of the church. I even know some who love the Gospel but are innactive because the feel unwelcome at church. This happens all the time. Church is more than a social function, but it is also a social function. That’s why every new member needs a friend, etc.

A recent discussion I had with the head of one of our LDS Family Services organizations was enlightening. He said the Church is running out of 19 year olds to send on missions.

Reasons? Among the key reasons are: 1. Families having fewer kids. 2. The Church raised the bar on missionary qualifications. 3. More and more of our converts are women. 4. More and more of our conversions are occurring overseas, especially in poorer areas of the world. 5. We are not retaining our young men, with many going inactive by the time they are ready to be ordained deacons.

It was suggested to me that while the Church won’t lower the bar, they may “adjust” it some.

Matt – I definitely agree with you, and I think that I may not have been clear. I think that sometimes ACTIVE members forget that the Church is more than their social function. It is up to those who are active and converted to reach out, make friends, and remember the principles of stewardship.

I think that we all go through difficulties – I was a divorced woman in a family ward. It was hard. I lost a lot of friends (it’s not that people weren’t friendly, it’s just that I think they didn’t know how to treat me.) Somehow, I was able to make it just fine, but it emphasized the importance of reaching out to all.

When we extend a hand of love to others we are living up to the committments that we have made with Christ – he taught us that a good shepherd would leave the 99 and search for one. Not only that, we are often blessed as we learn from those whom we serve.

I suspect “running out of 19 year olds” is hyberbole. But I agree that the number of kids in families will mean that you don’t have as many. I noticed that in many places people go inactive around getting out of high school and then get reconverted later. Indeed I vaguely recall a statistic that something like 30% of all American members were inactive at least one year of their life. Utah probably skews things the other direction give the social aspects of the Church are different here than elsewhere. But I know back home on the east coast I’d say most of the leadership I knew had been inactive sometime or other as had my Mission President.

I kind of suspected the strong restrictions on who could go on a mission would have to be modified. They really are too strong even though I completely understand the motivations for having them.

As Catania notes though, it really is hard to be single in a church that is so focused on family. I didn’t get married until 35 and let me tell you, even in Utah it really is a struggle. Now that I have a family and am on the other side I can understand why it’s so hard for families to reach out. Kids just take a lot of time and once you are done with them, done having the occasional time with your spouse, and done your callings there’s not really a lot of time left. Contrast this with the average single adult whose problem is perhaps they have too much time and are looking to fill it up. Despite the rhetoric it’s just very hard to do that at Church. Which then leads to other tensions.

I was talking to a woman yesterday who suggested that we need to get rid of singles wards. Her comment got me thinking about this blog topic. Would getting rid of singles wards help the “problem” we’re facing with singles in the church? Do singles wards perpetuate the problem?

While I was single, I stayed in a family ward. I was grateful for that experience (I had two kids in primary, so I couldn’t imagine leaving the family ward). Even though I didn’t have the conventional family, I felt comforted by the people in my ward who were also raising children. When I went to singles functions, I felt more judged than the other way around. I’m just wondering, Is my friend right? Are singles wards helping or hindering these single adults?

Well, I guess it depends one whether you live in the Land of Bountiful (Idaho and Utah) or the Land of Desolation (everywhere else) I left my home ward, in the Land of Desolation, went on my mission and at the end was told to start on a new mission: getting married. I came home to my ward, looked around and asked: “Where are the single women?” “Oh”, I was told, “they all left to go to BYU.” I didn’t have the money nor the inclination to go to BYU. (I once told a ward that I had made a career staying away from BYU. Boy! I didn’t do that again.) I enjoyed being a Mormon among the Gentiles. It was fun and I got lots of opportunities to talk about the Church. I began dating non-members from school, eventually fell in love and asked her to marry me. Then an angel must have come up and club me upside my head. She didn’t understand the Church and made like of many aspects of the Church. I asked myself do I want to leave the Church or deal with these kinds of remarks the rest of my life. No to both so we parted.

It was about that time I found out about the singles ward at the Stanford Institute of Religion. I went there and aha women, LDS women. I went on dates, firesides, camping and hiking all with LDS women. Finally I fell in love again, and took her to the temple.

In the Land of Desolation are single wards critical? Absolutely!

Rich

I think even in Utah they are very helpful. The problems start popping up for folks over 25. Many young women don’t appreciate being asked out by older guys in their late 20′s. Plus there tend to be significant social differences between the Freshman and Sophomore aged folks and the out making a career folks. But the people in their late 20′s or early 30′s who are single also typically don’t really fit in or enjoy regular wards either. Then there is the social aspects which can be troublesome. Typically in Utah single wards your friends disappear every few years as they marry, move on, or get careers out of states. Suddenly by the time you are 26 or 27 you realize that even with single wards meeting people you enjoy hanging out with is much, much more difficult.

I think that young single adult wards serve a great purpose if organized and lead correctly. Too often, too little is expected of the members, they don’t have a meaningful calling and they don’t feel like they belong.

There is a new site, ysaleaders.org, that identifies the challenges and provides concrete solutions on how to have better ysa wards. One thing is clear, that what is happening currently in many ysa wards is not helping our members come to Christ. We need to do a better job in helping our young single adults serve each other, repent, and move forward in their lives.

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