Comments on: Options & Alternative Possibilities

By: Mark D.

Mark D. — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 01:31:20 +0000

One other thing worth mentioning. Generally speaking, statements about possibility are made in the context of a certain time and relative to the information that is practically available to the observer. Possibility in this sense is subjective in the same sense that both Bayesian probability and statistical thermodynamics are subjective.

I.e., Such and such a state of affairs is possible because one is not in the possession of the information necessary to rule it out. In determinism of course, possession of perfect information about any temporal state of affairs would rule out all possibilities and all options for any past or future time save one only.

In other words, once the universe is instantiated, there are no real options or real possibilities in determinism, for the same reason that entropy is a fictive construct in classical statistical thermodynamics – they are functions of the information available to any macroscopic observer.

That doesn’t mean that the subjective concepts of possibility and entropy aren’t useful, however. Entropy, in particular, seems to benefit from what one might call “standardized subjectivity”. Paraphrasing Donald Rumsfeld, it is a “known unknown”.

So I would say that any discussion of this subject should start with the clarification of whether one is talking about subjective possibility, quasi-subjective possibility, or absolute possibility. Failure to make such a distinction is usually fatal to the validity of even the most casual argument about the subject.

By: Clark

Clark — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 00:43:10 +0000

I think intuitions tell us what we believe. But it is at best a first rather than last step. That is I think our intuitive capacity is how abductive logic works. However abduction often gives wrong answers which is why we have the scientific method or hermeneutic circle. The problem I have with intuition is that it is made the last word which ends up cutting off inquiry.

By: Jacob J

Jacob J — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 00:12:11 +0000

Very good post Clark. I agree with your comments about the vagueness of the vernacular vs. the philosophical jargon. However, I continue to feel that you can’t jettison intuition (which seems to be what the EP folks are after) to the degree you want to. I think a general sense of plausibility guides a large percentage of our philosophical conclusions and ultimately I don’t know that this can be avoided.