The irony here, I think, it that once you get to heaven the contrast between “secular” ethical principles and “religious” ethical principles will be increasingly blurry. At least if one maintains that God does what he does because it is right, rather than being right because God does it.

I’m a sociology grad student at Penn State and I’m writing an article right now about people raised with no religion. Yes, about half of people raised with no religion have switched to a religion, as a Pew report has shown (as well as General Social Survey data), but that’s not taking into account tremendous birth cohort differences. Specifically, people born after WWII are much less likely than those born before to switch to a religion after being raised with none. People born in the 1970s and 1980s haven’t had as much time to do so, as you could imagine, but they are “staying out” at a rate of 70 percent. So, this is clearly changing.

You’re absolutely right about the importance of social networks. This is what studies have generally shown. This is why marriage is a huge factor, as well moving to a new place, and other things that cause changes in your social networks. I think doctrinal appeal is important, but probably secondary to social considerations.

There’s also evidence that having a nonreligious spouse and nonreligious friends are strong predictors of having no religion, and the mere growth of this unaffiliated category is helping to ensure its stability in the future.

Anyway, nice post.

The second thing is that first with the rise of fraternal organizations religion has competition. Admittedly many of the fraternal organizations were adjuncts to religious organizations (say some Catholic groups) or quasi-religious themselves (say Masonry). But what’s interesting is that with the rise of actuarial science these fraternal organizations and even many religious charities were undercut by the rise of insurance companies which could offer better deals for the same social services. Then you had other changes, especially with the rise of a generally cosmopolitan society and the effect of new media like television, movies, radio and (now) the internet.

All of these have both offered competition to traditional religious services and simultaneously raised expectations. Sometimes religion still competes. (Think LDS welfare) When it does this it’s usually offering an advantage over the state due to free rider issues. (A traditional problem in services)

What’s interesting is that what is left is the doctrinal and spiritual aspects of religion. But for many people those were never that important — they tended to be picked up more because they were embedded in that community. Now you find the same thing — but often more politically oriented “doctrines.”

It’s interesting to look at Europe and see how people react to religion there. Society in Europe is much more secularized than here obviously. You see a lot of avowed atheists who maintain a quasi-religious tradition in say Anglican communities. They like the historical trappings: the music, the buildings, and some of the community. To the degree people maintain a traditional religious perspective it is much vaguer and open. i.e. a belief in God but without the commitment or even interest that would have once characterized it. God also tends to become far less interventionist. Religion becomes more about general moral principles. (You can see this emphasized in an academic setting with things like Fowler’s categories of faith where the final “highest” category is just this secularized ethical principle view)

It’s interesting to look broadly at this move to this competitive social order in which it is not only different faiths and religions competing all sorts of social orders. Dance clubs compete with church congregations. Oddly though the increased competition often leads to a watering down of these very movements making them seem more similar. That is diversity de-diversifies the movements.

Many churches now rely upon rock bands and entertainment to bring in crowds. Even after a $25 family donation, that’s still cheaper entertainment than paying for concert tickets. And you get to socialize.

Covenant and obedience are not pressed by many religions as they once were. What once would have kept people out of a church, such as homosexuality or adultery, is now embraced as just a part of life in many religions and churches.

Even the LDS stance on issues like homosexuality have softened greatly since the day Elder Spencer Kimball wrote his Miracle of Forgiveness (where he made it clear that being forgiven was not an easy thing to earn). Still, we perhaps retain the covenant and obedience points more than many other religions.