Orson Scott Card’s Foretelling of Blogs in the 80’s

Posted on September 17, 2009
Filed Under Politics | 10 Comments

OK, first read this xkcd comic:

512220CB-9DBA-452D-A07A-1E320B74DFE2.jpg

Now what’s amazing is that Card’s novel version of Ender’s Game was published in 1985 and written obviously before that. This was more than a decade before there even was a browser. Yes there was an Internet but it consisted of simple email and USENET postings. Yet the crucial plot point in the novel is really the prediction of blogs and the rise of power of particular bloggers.

However this has also become one of the hardest parts to accept. Yes, in the initial rise of blogs some powerhouses arose out of obscurity: Instapundit, DailyKOS, Marginal Revolution, etc. But even those rare top tier blogs would be hard pressed to remotely have the power that a couple of kids managed to have.

The problem isn’t just rising to the top tier of blogs in the space of a couple of years. The problem is that the masses are harder to manipulate than it appears. Admittedly in the book both bloggers are being tricky and saying things they don’t necessarily believe. But can one really imagine any pundit having the power those kids do in Ender’s Game?

Related posts:

  1. Inequality and the Importance of Cognition
  2. Conservative Intellectuals
  3. Higher Education Bubble
  4. Cowan on Autism
  5. Automakers
  6. How to Give Advice

Comments

10 Responses to “Orson Scott Card’s Foretelling of Blogs in the 80’s”

i just re-read ender’s game last week and had these same thoughts.

“The problem is that the masses are harder to manipulate than it appears” …tell that to my countless friends on facebook who keep spouting vitriol in the name of patriotism…thank you, glenn beck.

“The problem is that the masses are harder to manipulate than it appears”

should say

“The problem is that the masses are harder to manipulate (with good ideas) than it appears”

I think it’s harder to manipulate them with bad ideas also. Look at Beck, who’s been the talk this week. Yes he has a vocal following. But how big? I mean honestly it’s not that many people. Yes Card does play up that you need to manipulate both sides. But consider a Beck – Olbermann team who form a secret conspiracy to manipulate both the left and the right. How much power would they really have? And consider that it took Beck a long time to get to this point. (And his power is hardly via blogs) They raise a lot of commotion and can affect things on the margins, but that’s about it.

But consider a Beck – Olbermann team who form a secret conspiracy to manipulate both the left and the right.

No. I don’t want to. It’s scary.

I read Ender’s Game for the first time this summer. I was also amazed at OSC’s foresight of blogging.

I think that mass media does highly influence enough people to make a difference. The French Revolution had newspapers convincing the masses to storm the Bastille, execute the royalty, and then the conservatives, and then finally anyone they could grab for a kangaroo court.

While there are a lot of voices, it only takes an emergency to have one or two of those voices to quickly float to the top. Just look at how disunited Republicans and Democrats were on 9/10/2001, and how united they were a day later. Suddenly, some voices became still, as there no longer was a voice for dissidence to war, etc. Liberal Democrats stepped in line with Pres Bush, because that is where the national sentiment suddenly went to.

In Ender’s Game, the galactic war and threat of war with Russia floated Ender’s siblings to the top of the blogosphere. So, yes, I think such could truly happen, as most people are mindless, only moved upon by emotional or physical stimulus.

6 John Mansfield on September 18th, 2009 8:14 am

I can’t remember much of what Peter and Valentine were trying to promote with their writing. There was something about space colonization and accepting third children. Anything else? Did they shake their world in some way beyond what an effective columnist might?

Rameumpton, certainly the media can have an effect. But I think to have more of an effect on policy makers it has to come from more “official” sites. Say the NYTs (think of how they affected the debate on weapons of mass destruction during the runup to the Iraq War). Individuals can have a big influence as well – say Kagan on the Surge. But those tend to have their influence by having more direct influence on policy makers.

John, it’s true that they were manipulating a lot of the discussion more by shaping general interest. And part of that a popular columnist could do. I think the deeper manipulation required more.

I think Orson Scott Card is the Jules Verne of our era. Both writers were able to anticipate scientific developments of the next generation to an amazing degree.

To counter your point, Clark, I unquestioningly accept everything you write on blogs. Oh wait—that’s circular…

I just finished reading “Tipping Point” by Gladwell. His “Power of the Few” is very interesting.

He contrasts the difference between Paul Revere and William Dawes and why we remember the one and not the other.

Leave a Reply